Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls are resilient.
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig markets
21 February 2025
2 minute read
By: April lean hog futures on Wednesday saw strong selling pressure, much of which was profit taking. However, recent history shows that hog market bulls are resilient, so they can’t be counted out regarding another strong price recovery in the near term. Fundamentally, pork cutout value on Wednesday fell another $3.95 to 495.52, led lower by a $16.75 drop bellies. Over the past two days, the cutout has dropped $6.95 due to a $27.00 drop in belly prices. Weakness in pork cutout value has led to concerns the recent seasonal rally in hogs could be stalling out. The latest CME lean hog index continues to strengthen, however, rising another 79 cents to $90.98 as of Feb. 18.
Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry
The US National Pork Board is launching a new domestic marketing campaign. Reports said it’s a consumer brand promotion focused on who is a future consumer of pork, “what drives them, and what can we celebrate about the only product that our producers make,” said a National Pork Board official. He said the new campaign highlights the flavor and versatility of pork. The new campaign is set to begin this spring.
USMEF says US pork exports to Oceania hit record highs amid growing demand
US pork exports to Oceania experienced significant growth in 2024, with a 29% increase compared to the previous year, reaching 102,747 metric tons (mt), according to year-end data released by USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). This marks the largest export volume since 2019 and the second-largest on record. The export value also saw a remarkable rise, climbing 32% to a record $374.8 million. Despite limited market access for US pork in Oceania, the region remains an important destination for US raw materials used in further processing, as well as for processed pork products. Notably, New Zealand has shown a growing demand for US pork ribs, contributing to the upward trend in exports.
Overall, these figures highlight the strong and expanding presence of US pork in the Oceania market, underscoring its role as a key supplier to the region.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
April lean hog futures--$84.50 to $94.75 and with a sideways bias
March soybean meal futures--$290.00 to $305.00, and with a sideways-higher bias
March corn futures--$4.90 to $5.15 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
