Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls flex their muscles
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on the global pig market
17 February 2025
3 minute read
By: April lean hog futures on Wednesday gapped higher and pushed to a new contract high, supported by bullish cash hog market fundamentals. The latest CME lean hog index is up another 89 cents to $87.08 as of Feb. 11, marking the biggest daily increase in the seasonal price rise. The index has gained $6.65 since a seasonal low in early January. Traders are realizing
USDA’s December hogs and pigs report hog population estimate appears to be too high. Weekly hog slaughter levels continue to be below levels seen at the same tim a year ago. The near-term technical posture for April lean hogs remains fully bullish, suggesting more price upside in the near term.
Weekly USDA US pork export sales
Pork: Net sales of 24,900 MT for 2025 were primarily for Japan (6,200 MT), Mexico (5,000 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (3,600 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,300 MT), and Colombia (2,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 31,000 MT were primarily to Mexico (12,000 MT), South Korea (4,000 MT), Japan (3,900 MT), China (3,200 MT), and Colombia (1,700 MT).
USDA monthly report on US livestock
LIVESTOCK: Red meat, poultry, and egg supply and use estimates for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December production, ending stock, and trade data.
Pork production is raised as higher weights throughout the year more than offset the slower rate of slaughter expected in the first quarter. Broiler production is unchanged, with an expected slower rate of slaughter in the first quarter, in part due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling, offset by increased production in the third quarter.
Pork exports are lowered for the second half of the year on slower-than-previously-expected growth in several key export markets. The broiler export forecast is lowered on recent trade data and increased global export competition. The turkey export forecast is lowered on reduced domestic supplies.
For 2025, hog prices are raised for the first quarter on recent prices.
US pork exports finish 2024 on a strong note
The US exported 645.8 million lbs. of pork during December, the second most for the month behind 2019 and the highest monthly tally since April 2024. For 2024, pork shipments totaled 7.115 billion lbs., up 291.3 million lbs. (4.3%) from the previous year, fueled by a 3.7% increase to top buyer Mexico and a 12.0% jump to South Korea. Beef exports totaled 258.9 million lbs. in December. In 2024, beef shipments reached 3.003 billion lbs., down 34.9 million lbs. (1.1%) from the previous year as reduced exports to South Korea, China and Canada more than offset increases to Japan, Mexico and Taiwan.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
April lean hog futures--$91.00 to $98.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
March soybean meal futures--$290.00 to $310.00, and with a sideways-higher bias
March corn futures--$4.80 to $5.00 and a sideways bias
