Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls continue to fade
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
20 December 2024
3 minute read
By: February lean hog futures prices are trending down on the daily bar chart. However, improving cash hog market fundamentals could limit the downside in the near term. The latest CME lean hog index is up another 18 cents to $84.16 as of Dec. 17, the fourth gain in the last six days. While the net gain during that span is only 84 cents, the index is showing signs of a potential seasonal bottom. Pork cutout was up $1.58 to $96.35 Wednesday, a fresh for-the-move high.
Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry
Weekly USDA US pork export sales
Pork: Net sales of 11,200 MT for 2024 were down 50 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (2,800 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Japan (2,300 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Canada (2,100 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), South Korea (1,300 MT), and China (900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for Colombia (100 MT) and Hong Kong (100 MT). Net sales of 5,800 MT for 2025 primarily for South Korea (2,100 MT), Colombia (1,400 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Japan (500 MT), and Canada (400 MT), were offset by reductions for China (900 MT). Exports of 31,600 MT were down 7 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,800 MT), Japan (3,800 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT), China (3,100 MT), and Colombia (2,000 MT).
China’s pork imports double in November but still below year-ago
China imported 180,000 MT of pork in November, double the amount it brought in during the previous month but still 3.4% less than last year. Through the first 11 months of this year, China imported 2.09 MMT of pork, down 17.4% from the same period last year.
USDA Livestock Outlook: December 2024
Pork/Hogs: Processor spreads dropped in November as pork product prices declined more rapidly than hog product prices. It is notable, however, that both fourth-quarter hog prices and wholesale pork prices are expected to remain above year-earlier price levels due to fewer numbers of slaughter-ready hogs than anticipated, supporting wholesale pork prices thus far in the fourth quarter. Fourth-quarter hog prices are raised to $62 per cwt, almost 16 percent above prices a year ago, while pork production is lowered slightly to 7.24 billion pounds, still about 1 percent higher than fourth-quarter 2023 pork production. October pork exports were almost 2 percent higher than a year earlier, but weakness in shipments to Mexico weighed on the total October export volume. The fourth-quarter export forecast is lowered 35 million pounds to 1.875 billion pounds due to expectations of higher U.S. hog and pork prices for the balance of 2024.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
February lean hog futures--$82.10 to 86.60 and with a sideways-lower bias
January soybean meal futures--$265.60 to $293.90, and with a sideways-lower bias
March corn futures--$4.30 to $4.46 3/4 and a sideways-lower bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
