4 April 2025

4 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

June lean hog futures remain trapped in a sideways trading range, with bulls and bears on a neutral overall near-term technical playing field. After trading in a range from $95 to $100 for weeks, fresh pork cutout value dropped below that range Wednesday. Cutout fell $1.81 to $93.70 as all cuts posted losses on the day. The latest quote for the CME hog index rose 15 cents to $88.80. History suggests the hog and pork markets will rally over the next few months due to seasonal hog slaughter dropping to annual lows in late June or early July. Also, US consumer demand typically rises during the most-active part of the grilling season.

Weekly USDA US pork export sales

Pork: Net sales of 53,000 MT for 2025--a marketing-year high--were up 66 percent from the previous week and 88 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Mexico (30,600 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), China (10,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), South Korea (3,000 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), and Colombia (1,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT). Exports of 32,900 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (12,200 MT), South Korea (5,200 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (2,700 MT), and Colombia (2,300 MT).

US Judge allows pork price-fixing case to proceed

A U.S. District Court judge has ruled that several of the nation’s largest pork producers — including Tyson Foods, Smithfield Foods, and JBS USA — must face trial over allegations of a long-running conspiracy to fix pork prices and restrict supply, potentially costing consumers over $1.4 billion. The lawsuit accuses the companies of coordinating production cuts and exchanging non-public data through a third-party service called Agri Stats. This, plaintiffs argue, helped the firms inflate pork prices from 2009 to 2018.

The ruling: Judge John Tunheim, presiding in Minnesota, found there’s sufficient evidence for a jury to infer a coordinated scheme among the defendants. Hormel Foods was dismissed from the case due to insufficient evidence of participation, largely based on its limited role in Agri Stats.

Estimated impact. An expert for the plaintiffs pegged consumer damages at a minimum of $1.4 billion over the alleged conspiracy period. This lawsuit is part of a broader antitrust crackdown on meat producers, with similar claims already yielding hundreds of millions in settlements in the beef, turkey, and chicken markets.

Agri Stats, the data firm central to the claims, is accused of facilitating price coordination by sharing detailed production and pricing reports. The company denies any wrongdoing but has also been ordered to face trial.

Defendants deny all allegations. Hormel welcomed its dismissal.

Why it matters: This decision amplifies scrutiny of information-sharing practices in the meat industry. It also signals that private data exchanges, even if legal in form, may enable anti-competitive behavior — an issue likely to shape regulatory debates moving forward. This one’s heading to trial.

Bullish USDA hogs and pigs Report

USDA estimated the U.S. hog herd at 74.512 million head as of March 1, down 179,000 head (0.2%) from year-ago, whereas traders expected a 1.2% increase. The breeding herd at 5.980 million head declined 0.6%. The market hog inventory at 68.532 million head dropped 144,000 head (0.2%). The winter pig crop declined 0.2% and producers intend to farrow slightly fewer sows during spring (-0.2%) and summer (-0.8%). Given that every category in the report was below the average pre-report estimates, the data is bullish, especially with unexpected herd contraction..

China’s sow herd modestly builds

China’s sow herd totaled 40.7 million head at the end of February, up 0.6% from year-ago, according to data from the ag ministry. Hog slaughter rose 2.8% to 59.9 million head during the first two months of this year.

Beijing lets U.S. beef export registrations lapse... China has not renewed export registrations for U.S. beef facilities that expired on March 16, though it updated registrations for pork and poultry plants, Reuters reported, citing traders and the U.S. Meat Export Federation. As a result, U.S. exporters and Chinese buyers are reluctant to strike deals for American beef produced after that date due to uncertainty about whether it will be cleared for delivery. U.S. beef export sales to China totaled just 54 MT during the week ended March 20.

The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:

June lean hog futures--$93.70 to $100.00 and with a sideways bias

May soybean meal futures--$280.00 to $297.00, and with a sideways bias

May corn futures--$4.40 to $4.60 and a sideways bias

Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures