Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bears in firm control
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global news
11 April 2025
3 minute read
By: June lean hog futures prices this week hit an eight-month low. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily bar chart. Recent weakness in pork cutout value has traders concerned recent downside price action in the CME lean hog index will continue. The latest index is down 16 cents to $88.00 as of April 8. Reports U.S. tariffs will be suspended on all countries but China, who will be tariffed at 125%, effectively immediately. Once that news hit the wires, lean hog futures surged. Trading in hog futures is likely to remain volatile as tariff headlines continue to drive daily price action. The escalating trade war with China is likely to weigh on trade in hog futures.
Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry
Weekly USDA US pork export sales
Pork: Net sales of 23,900 MT for 2025 were down 55 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico (8,900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (3,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,200 MT, including decreases of 500 MT), Colombia (2,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Australia (1,700 MT), were offset by reductions for Canada (100 MT). Exports of 30,100 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (11,700 MT), Japan (4,500 MT), South Korea (4,400 MT), China (2,500 MT), and Colombia (1,900 MT).
US food prices have continued to rise, with the food index increasing by 0.4% in March
Specifically, egg prices have surged significantly. As of March 2025, the average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs reached $6.23, up from $5.90 in February and $4.95 in January. This sharp increase is attributed to factors such as the avian flu outbreak, which led to the culling of over 30 million egg-laying hens earlier this year.
Of note: Despite the absence of new bird flu outbreaks and a decline in wholesale egg prices in March, retail egg prices have continued to climb, particularly ahead of the Easter holiday when demand typically rises. Additionally, major egg producers like Cal-Maine Foods have reported substantial profit increases, prompting the Department of Justice to investigate potential price-fixing within the industry.
Canada and Mexico’s critical role in pork industry
Canada and Mexico remain a crucial market for U.S. pork, accounting for 5–7% of exports. What makes this concerning? The category makes up a large portion of US farm cash receipts, meaning any drop in export demand would “considerably reduce aggregate farm revenues,” the Kansas City Fed said.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
June lean hog futures--$88.00 to $95.00 and with a sideways-lower bias
May soybean meal futures--$282.10 to $303.00, and with a sideways-higher bias
May corn futures--$4.60 to $4.90 and a sideways-higher bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
