Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls in control
Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news
25 April 2025
4 minute read
By: June lean hog futures prices hit a six-week high Wednesday and prices are in a steep uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls are in firm near-term technical control. Fresh pork cutout values continue to struggle, however, falling $1.70 to $94.08 Wednesday as all cuts except butts posted losses on the day. Traders will examine Thursday afternoon’s USDA cold storage report to see how pork demand fared in March. The latest CME lean hog index is up another 67 cents to $86.75 as of April 22. Lean hog bulls are reckoning the CME cash index has bottomed and will work higher into the summer months as slaughter levels decline and pork production hits its annual low around mid-summer.
Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry
Weekly USDA US pork export sales
Pork: Net sales of 5,800 MT for 2025--a marketing-year low--were down 72 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (6,300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (3,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (1,600 MT), and Canada (1,200 MT), were offset by reductions for China (12,000 MT) and Denmark (100 MT). Exports of 27,100 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (10,200 MT), South Korea (4,700 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), Colombia (1,900 MT), and Canada (1,000 MT).
Tyson, Clemens, Triumph settle pork price-fixing suit for $64 million; Agri Stats still fighting charges
Tyson Foods, Clemens Foods, and Triumph Foods have agreed to a combined $64 million settlement in a pork price-fixing lawsuit filed by food service providers. Tyson will pay $50 million, Clemens $10 million, and Triumph $4 million. This settlement pushes the total payout in the case to over $180 million. All three firms denied wrongdoing. Triumph, the only company to issue a statement, emphasized it had increased supply during the period in question and believed it would have prevailed at trial. The plaintiffs continue to pursue claims against Agri Stats, a consulting firm accused of facilitating the exchange of sensitive, non-public data to coordinate pricing — an allegation the firm denies.
US livestock slaughter: 2024 summary
Summary Total Red Meat Production Up 1 Percent from 2023
Total red meat production for the United States totaled 55.0 billion pounds in 2024, 1 percent higher than the previous year. Red meat includes beef, veal, pork, and lamb and mutton. Red meat production in commercial plants totaled 54.9 billion pounds. On-farm slaughter totaled 91.0 million pounds.
Commercial hog slaughter totaled 130 million head, 1 percent higher than 2023 with 99.5 percent of the hogs slaughtered under federal inspection. The average live weight was up 1 pound from last year, at 288 pounds. Barrows and gilts comprised 97.3 percent of the total federally inspected hog slaughter.
There were 1,089 plants slaughtering under federal inspection on January 1, 2025 compared with 1,012 last year. Of these, 911 plants slaughtered at least one head of cattle during 2024 with the 12 largest plants slaughtering 51 percent of the total cattle killed. Hogs were slaughtered at 763 plants, with the 15 largest plants accounting for 64 percent of the total. For calves, 4 of the 140 plants accounted for 71 percent of the total and 4 of the 664 plants that slaughtered sheep or lambs in 2024 comprised 37 percent of the total head. Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas accounted for 50 percent of the United States commercial red meat production in 2024, up 1 percent from 2023.
China’s pork import decline in March
China imported 90,000 MT of pork during March, down 1.2% from year-ago. For the first three months of the year, China imported 280,000 MT of pork, up 7.5% from the same period last year.
China’s Q1 pork output rises 1.2%
China’s pork output rose 1.2% from year-ago in the first quarter to 16.02 MMT. A total of 194.76 million hogs were slaughtered from January to March, a 0.1% increase from the same period last year. Typically, pork output rises in the first quarter due to increased hog slaughter ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. But the sector remains under pressure, with oversupply and slow demand continuing to weigh on prices and profits. Authorities have taken steps to curb oversupply, as Beijing in 2024 lowered the national target for normal retention of breeding sows to 39 million head from 41 million.
The next week’s likely high-low price trading ranges:
June lean hog futures--$97.00 to $103.00 and with a sideways-higher bias
July soybean meal futures--$289.70 to $308.10, and with a sideways bias
July corn futures--$4.70 to $4.97 1/2 and a sideways bias
Latest analytical daily charts lean hog, soybean meal and corn futures
