Pig outlook: Lean hog futures bulls roar back to life

Livestock analyst Jim Wyckoff reports on global pig news

31 January 2025

4 minute read

By: Jim Wyckoff

April lean hog futures on Wednesday pushed to a nearly two-month high and the bulls have restarted a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the solid chart advantage to suggest still more price upside in the near term. Fundamentally, the latest CME lean hog index is up another 48 cents to $82.59 as of Jan. 28, marking the biggest daily gain during the rise over the past three weeks. The surge to record highs in cattle futures markets has likely played a role in recent strength in the hog futures market as traders purchase relatively cheaper hogs. Pork cutout value has climbed to the highest level in nearly a month, with bulls hoping cutout strength will spill over to the cash hog index.

Latest USDA and other news regarding the global pork industry

Weekly USDA US pork export sales

Pork: Net US sales of 33,600 MT for 2025 primarily for Mexico (11,800 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (11,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (2,500 MT), and Colombia (1,100 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (400 MT). Exports of 34,100 MT were primarily to Mexico (12,700 MT), the Bahamas (4,700 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), Japan (2,700 MT), and China (2,600 MT).

Smithfield raises $522 million in IPO

Smithfield Foods Inc.’s initial public offering raised $522 million, with shares pricing below the marketed range. The world’s largest pork producer and an indirectly owned subsidiary of Hong Kong-listed WH Group Ltd., sold about 26 million shares for $20 each, according to a statement. Smithfield and its owner offered 17.4 million shares each for $23 to $27 apiece, a previous filing showed. WH Group, which acquired Smithfield more than a decade ago, will maintain control of the company after the listing.

Historic US cash cattle surge continues

Frozen US pork inventories report mildly negative

USDA’s Cold Storage Report showed US pork stocks stood at 400.4 million lbs., up 9.3 million lbs. from November, more than the five-year average increase of 2.5 million lbs. for the month.

USDA 2025 food price outlook

The January 2025 Food Price Outlook summarizes recent trends in food prices based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data through December 2024. While food price inflation has slowed overall, key sectors like eggs and beef remain volatile due to supply chain and input cost pressures.

Key Highlights: Pork and fats/oils prices are forecasted to decline in 2025, with decreases of 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

Germany’s pork sector faces mounting challenges

Germany's first outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in nearly 40 years has dealt a severe blow to its struggling pork industry, Bloomberg reports. Since the outbreak on Jan. 10, major export destinations like the UK, South Korea, and Mexico have banned German pork imports, costing the country at least €1 billion ($1.05 billion) in lost sales, according to the farm cooperatives group DRV.

This setback follows years of turbulence, including African swine fever outbreaks since 2020, which led to bans from key markets such as China. Meanwhile, rising feed and energy costs, exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have accelerated the sector's decline, with Spain overtaking Germany as Europe’s top pork exporter.

Declining domestic demand, driven by shifting dietary preferences and animal welfare concerns, has left the industry increasingly reliant on exports. Analysts note that while a stronger European economy in 2025 might boost local consumption, global trade dynamics—including potential policy changes under a second Trump administration—could play a critical role.

Adding to the uncertainty, China’s investigation into alleged dumping of EU pork could result in tariffs, intensifying competition within the European market. These pressures underscore the challenges facing Germany's once-dominant pork sector.