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Livestock and Poultry World Markets and Trade

by 5m Editor
2 May 2008, at 12:00am

New countries have been added to the pork PSD to reduce the gap between total imports and total exports by selected countries, writes the United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service.

2008 Revised Forecast Overview

These additional countries have data for 1996 to 2008 and are included in this circular as well as in the PSD Online. As a result, any comparison between the 2008 forecast published in November and the revised 2008 forecast should take this modification into account.

Production

The 2008 pork production revised forecast for selected countries is 97 million tons. China dominates world production and forecasted production is sharply revised downward. Gains in forecasted production for the United States, the European Union, Brazil and Russia do not offset the Chinese reduction.

  • United States is raised nearly 6 percent (576,000 tons) to almost 10.7 million tons. Industry has adopted newly developed circovirus vaccines which have lowered hog losses resulting in increased pork production.

  • China is slashed nearly 7 percent (3.3 million tons) to 44.7 million tons. China continues to be challenged by disease outbreaks in the swine sector and adverse weather conditions this past winter. As a result, recovery has been slower than anticipated. Disease outbreaks are having a particularly negative impact on backyard production and will fuel increased commercial production.

  • European Union is increased almost 3 percent (590,000 tons) to 22.5 million tons largely on production increases by Denmark, Germany, and the Benelux countries.

Consumption

  • United States is raised nearly 3 percent (255,000 tons) to just under 9.4 million tons as higher pork production keeps retail prices in check spurring consumer purchases.

  • China is lowered nearly 7 percent (3.1 million tons) to almost 44.6 million tons. Reduced consumption is being driven by higher prices and reduced supplies due to negative weather and disease outbreaks.

  • European Union is raised over 2 percent (515,000 tons) to just over 21.3 million tons as lower prices and plentiful supplies will raise consumption.

Exports

Pork exports are boosted over 6 percent to nearly 5.5 million tons. Pork export growth by the key traders United States and the European Union buoy the forecast increase while Canada and China are lowered.

  • United States is raised over 17 percent (252,000 tons) to a new record of 1.7 million tons as exports soar fueled by increased supplies and a weaker dollar. Shipments to Japan and Canada are expected to remain robust and increased sales to China represent an opportunity in an expanding market.

  • European Union is stepped up 15 percent (170,000 tons) to 1.3 million tons. The escalation is strengthened by opportunities for Danish and German pork in China as well as to increased sales to Russia which lifted its ban on Polish products in December.

  • China is forecasted downward by 27 percent (120,000 tons) to 330,000 tons as domestic production shortfalls translate to reduced export sales.

Imports

Pork imports are raised nearly 853,000 tons to nearly 5.2 million tons. Though there is some growth in imports by major markets such as Japan and Russia, almost all of the increase in imports is due to the inclusion of new countries or readmission or previously included countries in the PSD database.

  • United States is dropped nearly 10 percent (45,000 tons) to 420,000 tons. While due in part to a weaker dollar, restructuring of the Canadian swine sector is also impacting demand. While U.S. pork imports from Canada have been falling, U.S. imports of live swine, largely from Canada, is raised nearly 11 percent to a record 10.9 million head.

  • Japan is raised over 3 percent (40,000 tons) to just nearly 1.3 million tons. U.S. and Canadian chilled pork will increasingly find opportunities in the market, offsetting an anticipated decrease in frozen pork imports which are generally used for processing. Shored by the weaker dollar, the United States is also expected to continue to chisel at Denmark’s market share.

  • Russia is increased 4 percent (35,000 tons) to 910,000 tons. Despite higher prices which are dampening consumption, domestic production is unable to keep pace with rising demand.

Further Reading

More information - You can view the full report by clicking here.

April 2008