USSEC's Jim Sutter speaks on expectations for US and global soy markets
In late January 2025, the USSEC CEO spoke about market demand, the new Trump administration and how China and Brazil impact global soy tradeJim Sutter, the CEO of the US Soybean Export Council (USSEC) was interviewed by The Poultry Site’s Sarah Mikesell at the International Processing and Production Expo (IPPE) in Atlanta, Georgia in late January 2025.
Editor’s note: this interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Jim, tell us about USSEC and what you are focused on.
We're an organization that represents the whole soy export value chain. We were formed 20 years ago by the American Soybean Association and the United Soybean Board to be the group that is singularly focused on international marketing of US soy. We represent farmers all the way through export elevators. We've got about 120 members, seed companies, railroads, exporters, and processors. Our work this year will reach about 90 countries. We've got people all around the world. There are about 200 people who are engaged with our organization; we've got about 45 in the US and the balance are international. We are broken up into six different regions, and you can imagine the regions around the world that we would cover, but there are many different places that soy goes.
We have three key strategic goals that we try to think about all the time.
- Market access. Continuing to attain access for US soy in the markets we want it to go into and identifying trade barriers.
- Differentiating US soy. Educating people about what makes US soy different than soy from other origins, and there are some differences.
- Elevating a preference for US soy. We believe once they understand the value, they will then have a preference.
Those three strategic goals are what we wake up and go to sleep thinking about.
Tell me some of the key issues or challenges that you see impacting global soybean trade.
First, if you look around the landscape these days regarding trade, there are some impediments to trade. Whereas, 10 years ago, everybody thought trade was a great thing and countries should be trading with one another. Unfortunately, there's a little bit of an anti-trade bias these days. I don't know if that'll continue, but that's something when we continue to talk about – the importance of trade and the way that trade for countries to purchase feed ingredients, foodstuffs, and other agricultural products works. They can enhance their nutritional security rather than hurt it. I think that's something we always need to be educating people about.
In terms of US soy, there's soy being grown in several countries around the world. Other countries are expanding their production. We're trying to make sure that we have all the markets around the world that want to buy US soy, understand the value that US soy can deliver and making sure they understand that value is a critical component.
There's a little uncertainty these days in trade circles. Trying to calm people and tell them the US, I believe, is going to continue to be a big producer of ag commodities. International markets are extremely important to us and to our farmers. We're going to continue to have the opportunity to supply those international markets.
In the US, we very recently had a change in the administration. Do you see that having a significant impact on US soy trade?
Anytime there's a change in administration people wonder what this will mean. Because what we focus on is the change of one person, the President changes, but a whole bunch of other people change as well. We work very closely together with the Foreign Agricultural Service, a part of USDA. We're seeing who the new people that USDA and FAS will be as part of this new administration. It's important for us to know that and then educate them about US soy.
But do we think it will really make things change? No. Again, as I said before, the US is going to continue to be a big producer of soy, and 60% of our crop gets exported in the form of beans, meal or oil, and it's important for us to continue. We'll have the opportunity to do that.
Now, there may be some things that come up. This new administration will be extremely focused on ensuring we have fair trade. I think they will also want free trade. We want fair and free trade; that's great for us. As I mentioned earlier, we touch 90 countries with our programs. We'd like to see those continue to grow.
You mentioned soy in the forms of beans, meal and oils. From an export standpoint, do you see demand for those going up or down?
It is changing, so I'm glad you asked that question. Historically, about 85% of our total exports have been beans, 10% to 12% soymeal, and the small balance is oil. The way we see that changing going forward, you've probably heard about the increased demand for oil going into the biofuels industry. Even though oil is a small export today, we think it can probably get smaller in the future. As domestic oil demand grows, more soybeans are being crushed here, and so that means that more soymeal is available for the export market. So, we will see our meal exports going up. We expect them to go up by 50% in the next eight to 10 years. We expect bean exports to stay about the same. That means that, percentagewise, we'll probably get to the point where only 75% of our total exports are beans, and maybe 24.5% will be soymeal, and a small percentage would be oil. That's the change that we see coming. That's a good thing for us, because as we export more soymeal, it helps us diversify our markets, which is important to us.
Let me just jump in and just talk about China for a second, because it's hard not to talk about China in a soy discussion, because they're the biggest importer in the world. China takes about 60% of the global trade of soy, and they take about 40% of US soy's exports. People may say, 40%, doesn't that worry you? Well, it used to be 60%. Honestly, I'm quite happy that we've diversified, and it's only 40% today. And as we export more soymeal to different destinations, that'll help us diversify even further and get away from a reliance on that one single market.
Brazil is the other big player when it comes to US soy. Tell us about Brazil’s growth potential and what that might mean for the US?
I expect Brazil to continue to grow. We work closely together with Brazil in some ways, even though we're a competitor. We're in an organization together that works on making sure there is market access for soy around the world. Sometimes multiple voices are better than just one voice.
The Brazilian industry is probably poised to continue growing. I believe the rate of growth will slow some. I don't think they will just have this continued fast pace of growth. We're fortunate in the soy industry that demand globally continues to grow. The world needs what Brazil, the US, Argentina, and other countries can produce. So fortunately, even though they've been growing, we haven't had huge surpluses that have really caused negative things to happen to the US price. Now, we had a little bit of that earlier this year. Prices came down because people were expecting, on top of a record crop in the US, a huge crop in South America. Now we see as the crop predictions get a little bit smaller, the price has gone up a little bit. I think what the market's also realizing is that demand is pretty good. So, I expect Brazil to continue to grow, but at a little bit slower pace.