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FAO Releases 2008-2017 Outlook (January 2009)

by 5m Editor
9 January 2009, at 12:00am

By Chris Harris, Senior Editor, ThePigSite. Our snapshot of the ongoing global pig industry trends as reported in January 2009 Whole Hog Brief. To read the full detailed analysis including all the commentary and graphical data, subscribe to the publication.

The OECD and FAO joint outlook for meat to 2017 forecasts a rise in both production and consumption, according to the January issue of the Whole Hog.

The report says that despite competition for other land resources, high feed casts and low profit margins, world meat production is expected to grow by two per cent annually in the next decade.

However, it says that in the developed world production will only grow by 0.5 per cent while in the developing world it will rise by 2.5 per cent.

The rise in pork production in China and Brazil in particular is put down to the improved technology and greater investment, the Whole Hog report says.

In the OECD pig meat production is expected to rise by 4.3 per cent to 2017 and in other countries including Brazil and China the rise is forecast to be 35 per cent.

Pig meat consumption in the OECD countries is expected to rise by 4.1 per cent and in the non-OECD countries by 31.5 per cent.

Various Meat Production 2007-2017
The Whole Hog also reports that Ireland is feeling the effects of the cull of pigs and recall of meat because of the melamine contamination scare shortly before Christmas.

It says that 100,000 pigs were culled out of a pig herd that was recorded to be 1,466,550 head in June.

In 2007 Ireland exported 135,000 tonnes of pig meat with 59 per cent going to the UK.

Price Cycle Ready for Down Turn

The Whole Hog global pig price cycle looks set for a down turn, despite the latest figures showing prices for the major exporters up - one per cent for the USA, 24 per cent for Canada and 10 per cent for Denmark.

The Whole Hog says that although the downward trend in prices would not normally be expected until April or May this year, weakening demand could change things.

It predicts that barring an outbreak of disease or protectionist policies distorting the market, the recent upward trend in prices could soon end.

The Whole Hog also shows that the continued rise in prices in the EU is running out of steam.

In December the price was €144.17 per 100kg, 8.9 per cent higher than the same month the year before. However, the November prices had seen a 14.7 per cent increase over the year and the October prices a 20.2 per cent rise.

North American Powerhouses

Smithfield Foods heads the top 20 list of US pork producers with more than 1 million sows and more than double its nearest rival in the list Triumph Foods and Seaboard Foods, who have 395,000 and 213,000 sows each.

The Whole Hog, recording the Successful Farming Pork Powerhouses, says that the top 20 in the US represent about 50 per cent of the country's pork production.

The largest producer in Canada is Hytek with 60,000 head of sows.

Canadian and US Exports Up

The latest Canadian figures show pork exports for October rose by 10.6 per cent compared to the same month in 2007.

The Whole Hog says that the US remains the largest destination for Canadian pork, although they fell by more than 17 per cent. With drops in exports to China, Mexico and Australia, it was Hong Kong, Taiwan and Russia that saw increases in the amount they took.

Meanwhile, the Whole Hog reports that US pork exports for October were up by 17.7 per cent on September and 68.4 per cent year on year.

Chilled pork exports were up by more than 20 per cent on September. Frozen pork exports were 12.4 per cent higher and pork variety meat exports were 19.1 per cent up. Japan, Mexico and Russia all saw rises in the amount of US pork they took.

Australian and Japanese Imports Increase

Australian pig meat imports rose by 41.9 per cent year on year in September to 8,916 tonnes.

Canada had nearly a third of the market, but the Whole Hog reports that imports of Danish pig meat rose significantly, by 157.7 per cent compared to September 2007 and by 42.5 per cent on Augusts figures.

While Japanese imports of pig meat fell by four per cent in September last year compared to the previous month, they were 21.8 per cent higher than the previous year.

Meanwhile, the Whole Hog reports that imports to South Korea fell by 7.4 per cent in October from September and by 23.5 per cent year on year.

Imports from Canada fell and imports from Chile are banned in Korea because of high dioxin levels in Chilean pork.