Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

• USDA Quarterly Report: March 2011
• What It All Means - Expert Commentary
• In the News - What the Media Says
• Graph Data from the Report
• Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 19-page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data that is not shown in this article, please click here

USDA Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Report: March 2011

US Hog Inventory Up One Per Cent

United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 March 2011 was 64.0 million head. This was up 1 per cent from 1 March 2010, but down 1 per cent from 1 December 2010.

Breeding inventory, at 5.79 million head, was up slightly from last year, and up slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 58.2 million head, was up 1 per cent from last year, but down 1 per cent from last quarter.

The December 2010-February 2011 pig crop, at 28.0 million head, was up 1 per cent from 2010 but down 2 per cent from 2009. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.86 million head, down 1 per cent from 2010 and down 5 per cent from 2009. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 per cent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was a record high 9.80 for the December 2010-February 2011 period, compared to 9.61 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.50 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.90 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory –United States:
1 March

United States hog producers intend to have 2.85 million sows farrow during the March-May 2011 quarter, down 3 per cent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2010, and down 5 per cent from 2009. Intended farrowings for June-August 2011, at 2.87 million sows, are down 3 per cent from 2010 and down 3 per cent from 2009.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 46 per cent of the total United States hog inventory, up from 44 per cent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2010 through December 2010 were reviewed using final pig crop, official slaughter, death loss, and updated import and export data. Based on the findings of this review, an adjustment of slightly more than one per cent was made to the September 2010 total inventory. An adjustment of less than one half of one per cent was made to the December 2010 total inventory. An adjustment of more than one per cent was made to the June-August 2010 pig crop.

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain Ron Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report USDA’s March hogs and pigs report said the hog herd was slightly larger than pre-release trade forecasts, writes Ron Plain.

Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc Market Preview: Trends in Pig Crop Report Economist Steve Meyer writes, "USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, released last Friday, contained no big surprises, although there were a couple of definite trends that may impact hog and pork markets in the weeks and months to come."

Jim Long Pork Commentary: Hogs & Pigs Report - More of the Same Last Friday the USDA released the 1 March Hogs and Pigs Report. There are no big surprises. It shows an industry treading water. We expect prices will track over the coming months very close to where lean hog futures closed. For example last Friday with June at 103.70, writes Jim Long

Shane Ellis, Iowa State University March Hog and Pig Report Summary March swine inventories came in slightly higher than a year ago, as expected by analysts, writes Shane Ellis.

Chris Hurt, Purdue University Hog Price Peak Coming Soon? Chris Hurt comments on the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs report.

More to follow soon...

In The News - What The Media Says

• CME: Key Data from Latest Hogs and Pigs Report - CME
• Results of Latest Hogs and Pigs Report - AgEBB
• Breeding Herd, Market Hog Inventory Up on 1 March - AgEBB

Graph Data from the Report

Quarterly Litter Rate –United States


Pigs per Litter by Size of Operation –
United States: December-February 2011


Quarterly Sows Farrowed –United States


Quarterly Pig Crop –United States

Reliability of 1 March Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF.

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, March 2011 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service