Introduction

This document aims to pull together, in one place of reference, all the various information generated by the USDA Quarterly report. This document includes:

• USDA Quarterly Report: December 2009
• What It All Means - Expert Commentary
• In the News - What the Media Says
• Graph Data from the Report
• Hog Inventories by State (external link - select State and navigate to file)

For a PRINTABLE VERSION of the full 24 page report in PDF format, including all the tabular data which is not shown in this article, Click Here

USDA Quarterly Pigs and Hogs Report: December 2009

US Hog Inventory down Two Per Cent

US inventory of all hogs and pigs on 1 December 2009 was 65.8 million head. This was down 2 per cent from 1 December 2008 and down 2 per cent from 1 September 2009.

Breeding inventory, at 5.85 million head, was down 3 per cent from last year and down slightly from the previous quarter. Market hog inventory, at 60.0 million head, was down 2 per cent from last year and down 2 per cent from last quarter.

The September-November 2009 pig crop, at 28.8 million head, was up slightly from 2008 but down 2 per cent from 2007. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.97 million head, down 2 per cent from 2008 and down 6 per cent from 2007. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 51 per cent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 9.70 for the September-November 2009 period, compared to 9.50 last year. The litter rate equaled the record for pigs saved per litter set during the June- August 2009 period. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.40 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 9.80 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

US Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Inventory: 1 December

US hog producers intend to have 2.95 million sows farrow during the December 2009-February 2010 quarter, down 2 per cent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2009 and down 4 per cent from 2008. Intended farrowings for March-May 2010, at 2.94 million sows, are down 3 per cent from 2009 and down 4 per cent from 2008.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with over 5,000 head, but raised by contractees, accounted for 44 per cent of the total US hog inventory, up from 43 per cent last year.

Revisions

All inventory and pig crop estimates for March 2008 through September 2009 were reviewed using slaughter, death loss and current import and export data. Based on this review, adjustments of less than one half of one percent were made to the December-February 2009 pig crop and September 2009 total inventory. An adjustment of less than one percent was made to the June 2009 total inventory while an adjustment of less than two percent was made to the March-May 2009 pig crop.

Special Note

The market hogs and pigs weight groups have changed. The market weight group under 60 pounds has been changed to under 50 pounds. The market weight group 60-119 pounds has been changed to 50-119 pounds. The 120-179 pounds and 180 pounds and over weight groups remain the same. The changes align NASS market hogs and pigs weight groups more closely with international trade data and allow for a more uniform analysis of the North American hog inventory.

Estimates have been made for these new weight groups dating back to March of 2008 at the US and State level using slaughter data and current import and export data.

The quarterly estimating States will now include Utah but will exclude Arkansas and Wisconsin. This change was due to increased production in Utah and decreased production in Arkansas and Wisconsin. Data from March 2008 forward will reflect this change to provide the user with comparable data for 2008 and 2009.

What It All Means - Expert Commentary

What the commentators and industry thinkers read into this data:

Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes Grimes & Plain on the Hogs and Pigs Report USDA's December Hogs and Pigs report is less bullish than the pre-release trade forecasts, write Ron Plain and Glenn Grimes.

Dr Mike Brumm, Brumm Swine Consultancy Commentary: Dr Mike Brumm on latest Hogs and Pigs Report While the markets focused on the extent to which the US breeding herd inventory was reduced, there are several other interesting items in this report that support the continued structural and productivity changes in the US and US/Canada industries.

Steve Meyer, Paragon Economics, Inc Hogs & Pigs Report Holds Few Surprises USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report for December contained inventory estimates that were quite close to pre-report estimates but future production estimates that indicate more hogs than we had hoped for are coming in 2010, writes economist Steve Meyer.

Jim Long Pork Commentary - USDA December 1st Hogs and Pigs Report The USDA released their inventory report for 1 December last week. No big surprises – fewer pigs and fewer sows, writes Jim Long.

Professor John Lawrence, Iowa State University John Lawrence on the December 2009 Hog and Pig Report USDA released its estimate of the 1 December 2009 US inventory of Hogs and Pigs on December 30, writes John Lawrence. The inventory of all hogs was down two per cent, market hogs down 1.8 per cent and breeding herd down 3.5 per cent compared the same quarter the year before.

In The News - What The Media Says

• Hogs and Pigs Report Close to Trade Expectations - AgEBB
• Weight Categories for Market Hogs Different - CME

More to follow soon....

Graph Data from the Report

US Quarterly Litter Rate
September-November

US Pigs per Litter
By Size of Operation, September-November 2009

US Quarterly Sows Farrowed
September-November

US Quarterly Pig Crop
September-November

US Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
1 December

US Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
1 March

US Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
1 June

US Hog Inventory & Market Hogs
1 September

Reliability of 1 December Hogs and Pigs Estimates

To review this information, including the Survey Procedures, Estimation Procedures, Revision Policy and Reliability, please download the PDF

Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report, December 2009 - USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service